Giuliani: big state of mind; Former NYC mayor banking on votes in Florida, Illinois to make Iowa, N.H. irrelevant

The conventional wisdom is that Rudy Giuliani has seen hiscampaign hit a soft spot and he faces perilous waters in the earlyvoting, but he's entertaining none of that negative thinking.

Point to slippage in some national surveys of the Republicanpresidential standings, and he can cite the more reliableRealClearPolitics.com average of all polls showing the trend linestill gives him a comfortable advantage. And he will reel off thenames of big states where he has big leads.

Bring up the surge by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee andGiuliani will laugh, saying nothing surprises him in politics.Moreover, while Huckabee's rise is built on evangelicals unhappywith other candidates, Giuliani told me during his latest Chicagovisit that he sees no erosion in his support among socialconservatives, a standing that continues to mystify the pundits.

I mentioned the rise of Democrat Barack Obama and his appeal ofgenerational change, and the former New York mayor cited pollingshowing that he, like Obama, does well among younger voters.

Political candidates always are upbeat about their prospects --how else could they take on the challenge when the odds of victoryare often long? -- but the optimism Giuliani voices reflects apositive tone to his campaign that doesn't always come across in theharsh exchanges of the televised debates. That optimism was ondisplay in a town hall meeting at the Italian American NationalSports Hall of Fame in Chicago Friday as he discussed how theRepublican Party had to stand for freedom of the individual incontrast to the Democrats' reflex of turning over more control ofour lives to government.

Huckabee is portrayed as the fresh face in the GOP primarysweepstakes. But his policies betray him as the candidate ondomestic issues who most resembles President Bush -- a socialconservative, big-government Republican. And he outdoes Bush on bothcounts. He's not just pro-life and anti-embryonic stem cellresearch, he doesn't believe in evolution. He's not just in favor ofgovernment doing more for the people, he has a record of raisingtaxes to pay for it.

Giuliani is not from the Bush mold. Where he represents a turningof the page for Republicans that Huckabee does not is that he can becompetitive in states in the Northeast and Midwest that would haveto be surrendered, again, by a socially conservative southernRepublican nominee.

That appeal is central to the New Yorker's approach to winningthe nomination. Giuliani is not ignoring Iowa and New Hampshire, buthe won't do well in the Hawkeye State caucuses. His hopes are higherin New Hampshire and other early test states, Michigan, Nevada andSouth Carolina. But his strategy is banking on moderate big statesthat bumped up their voting to earlier in the season to steal someof the selection thunder from Iowa and New Hampshire.

First up is Florida Jan. 29 where polls give Giuliani a big lead.Then come Tsunami Tuesday, Feb. 5, and 22 contests with more than1,100 national convention delegates at stake. Illinois, which hasmore than twice as many delegates as New Hampshire and Iowacombined, is one of those states, and Giuliani has spent more timehere than the other GOP candidates and has the best organization.The biggest contest is in California, where the RealClearPoliticsaverage puts Giuliani with a double-digit lead. Also voting that dayis his home state, New York. Next door is New Jersey, where his polllead is 40 points.

The threat is that someone else comes out of Iowa and NewHampshire with back-to-back wins and steamroller momentum. Thatdoesn't seem likely. Which means Giuliani will have the chance tomake in the big states his very credible case that he represents thebest GOP hope of keeping the White House.